Bitcoin's 2025 Peak? Analyst Dowbts Q4 Forecasts

Bitcoin Unlikely to Reach Price Peak in Q4 2025: Analyst

Traders predicting Bitcoin (BTC) will reach its cycle high by the end of 2025 may be misinterpreting statistical principles, according to one Bitcoin analyst.

This perspective surfaces amidst a flurry of forecasts regarding Bitcoin's future performance.

PlanC stated in an X post that, “Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability.” He argues against relying solely on previous halving cycles, deeming the data statistically insignificant.

Halving Cycle's Relevance Questioned

The analyst suggests the halving cycle may no longer be as relevant to Bitcoin, a sentiment echoed in industry debates, particularly with the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies and substantial inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

“There is zero fundamental reason — other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy — for the peak to occur in Q4 2025,” PlanC explained. Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin's strongest quarter, averaging an 85.42% return since 2013, according to CoinGlass.

Conversely, if the halving cycle remains a significant factor, some analysts suggest Bitcoin could enter a downtrend as early as October.

Diverging Opinions on the Bull Market

The industry is currently divided over the duration of the current bull market.

• On August 17, Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg estimated a “greater than 50% chance Bitcoin goes to the 140 to 150 range this year before we see another bear market next year.”
• Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan anticipates the bull market extending into 2026, stating, “I bet 2026 is an up year.”

Furthermore, some analysts project Bitcoin reaching $250,000 before 2026. Projections include those from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained Market Research Director Joe Burnett.