Ethereum's Surge: Charts Show Potential $4.5K Target, But Risks Loom
Ethereum (ETH) has been a top performer, with analysts drawing parallels to the tech stocks boom of the 1990s. Could $4,500 be the next target? Let's delve into the factors driving this rally and the potential risks.
Ethereum's Impressive July Performance
Ethereum is back in focus after a stellar July, marking its best monthly performance in three years. The cryptocurrency surged by 56%, closing the month at $3,862, up from $2,468 on July 1, according to CoinGecko.
This surge was largely fueled by significant inflows into spot Ether ETFs, prompting comparisons to the rapid growth of tech stocks in the 1990s, according to Bloomberg analysts.
ETF Inflows Driving the Rally
ETFs have played a crucial role in Ethereum's recent price surge. The sector experienced over 19 consecutive days of net inflows in July, attracting over $5.37 billion from investors.
BlackRock's iShares Ethereum ETF also achieved a milestone, surpassing $10 billion in AUM just 251 days after its launch, making it the third-fastest ETF to reach this mark.
Notably, Ether ETFs outpaced Bitcoin ETFs in inflows for six consecutive days in July, signaling a shift in market sentiment.
Analyst Perspective: ETH Resembles 90s Tech Stocks
Eric Balchunas, a Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, likened Ethereum's growth to that of tech stocks in the 1990s. He emphasized that Ethereum's increasing adoption and network activity differentiate it from Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative.
Ether Starting to Look Like ’90s Tech Stock as ETFs Catch Fire.. new from me today on Ether ETFs’ breakout returns/flows, a reminder that alt coin ETFs more like fledgling tech stocks in the ’90s vs bitcoin’s ‘new gold’ appeal. Two blockchains, but very dif trades. pic.twitter.com/FaJKDKuMl1
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 30, 2025
Balchunas noted growing institutional interest in Ethereum as a growth asset, fueled by confidence in its potential as a programmable platform for DeFi and other applications.
Futures Volume and Potential Liquidations
Ethereum has surpassed Bitcoin in futures volume dominance, indicating increased trader bullishness on ETH. A cluster of short liquidations around the $4,000 level could trigger a surge towards $4,500 if breached, potentially liquidating nearly $930 million in short positions.
Bearish Divergence: A Note of Caution
Despite the bullish signals, a bearish divergence is emerging. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not confirming recent highs, suggesting weakening buying pressure.
Analysts point to patterns on four-hour and daily charts that may signal a local correction. Failure to break through $4,000 with strong volume could lead to a pullback towards support levels near $3,700.
Fibonacci retracement levels suggest that a successful breach of the $4,000 zone could open the door to testing the $4,500 level. However, a worst-case scenario could see a drop to the $3,200 – $3,300 range, representing an untested "fair value gap."
The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the current bullish momentum can be sustained or if it will succumb to selling pressure. At Codeum, we understand the importance of secure and reliable smart contracts. Our smart contract audit services ensure your Ethereum-based projects are protected from vulnerabilities.