US Govt Bitcoin Buying: Unlikely, Says Hayes
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the United States is unlikely to substantially increase its Bitcoin reserves beyond the holdings already acquired through seizures. This prediction stems from the country's high debt levels and the prevailing negative public perception of Bitcoin, often associated with a stereotypical image of 'crypto bros'.
Government Bitcoin Acquisition: An Unlikely Scenario?
In a recent interview, Hayes expressed skepticism about the feasibility of a large-scale government Bitcoin purchase. He noted that the US operates with a budget deficit, making the acquisition of additional Bitcoin difficult without resorting to unconventional methods. The existing Bitcoin reserves, estimated at 198,012 BTC (worth over $18 billion), are primarily derived from assets seized during criminal investigations, including notable instances like the Silk Road and Bitfinex hacks.
Hayes further doubts that any elected politician would publicly advocate for printing money to purchase Bitcoin. He highlighted the potential negative public reaction to this idea, referencing the popular perception of Bitcoin being associated with a particular group. The image of 'crypto bros' detracts from serious consideration of a large-scale Bitcoin purchase as a governmental strategy.
Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Season
Beyond the government's Bitcoin strategy, Hayes remains confident that the traditional Bitcoin dominance cycle preceding an altcoin season will prevail. He predicts Bitcoin dominance will reach around 70% before investors start rotating into altcoins. However, other analysts, such as Benjamin Cowen and Ki Young Ju, hold differing views, with some arguing that the traditional relationship between Bitcoin dominance and altcoin season is changing.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin dominance stands at 64.78%, up from 57.59% on January 1st. This increase, according to TradingView data, has fueled debates among analysts regarding its peak before the expected altcoin season.
Disclaimer: This article presents different viewpoints and opinions on potential government Bitcoin acquisitions and market dynamics. It is not financial advice.
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